![]() Whether that remains the case or not, tropical forcing is expected to remain rather weak regardless, which is typical during the core summer months. The CCKW is expected to collapse into the Circle of Death (COD) this weekend, then is likely to remain in the COD for an extended period through the middle of August. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in a low-amplitude phase 4 in the Maritime Continent. There is a possibility to see another piece of the ridge break off and head eastward during the 3rd week of August leading to a temporary increase in temperatures once again, but this is met with lower confidence given the extended range of this period from now. ![]() This leads to a near to very slightly above average (at times) stretch during that time period. For the following week of July, this ridging will again consolidate in the SW US, and the pattern turns more zonal for several weeks into mid-August. Temperatures in the 90-95° range will be common, and humidity will also play a factor. A piece of that ridge is expected to break off and move eastward next week, which will allow for a heatwave to take shape, most notably between next Tuesday and next Sunday. OVERVIEW: During the first half of July we’ve seen ridging dominate in the four corners region in the SW US, and that has kept our temperatures very seasonable for much of that stretch. Note: Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing Public/free av ailable maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year: July 30th – August 5th: Near to slightly above averageĪugust 6th – August 12th: Near to slightly above averageĪugust 20th – August 26th: Near to slightly above average July 23rd – July 29th: Slightly above average July 16th – July 22nd: Near to slightly above average Meteorologist Bobby Martrich on Twitter: īreakdown of precipitation departures from norm al over the next several weeks: Looking ahead to the month of August suggests a near to slightly above average (+0.0″ to +1.0″) precipitation departure for the month as a whole using longer term climate models and global observation trends.įollow our social media channels for updates: The notable spread is largely due to a wet first week in southern locations nearest a stalled boundary, while the northern locales have seen very little or nothing at all. The month of July we project will finish with above average (+0.5″ to +1.5″) precipitation departures for the month as a whole for southern areas, and a near to slightly below average (-0.0″ to -1.0″) projection for interior/northern areas with moderately high confidence. Next chance for showers/storms arrives late Thursday with the next frontal boundary. Monday afternoon through the evening will again be targeted for this activity, then the front dissipates Monday night or Tuesday. A more organized threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists on Monday as low pressure and its associated front moves through the region. A stray or isolated shower or garden-variety thunderstorm will be possible both afternoons in spots, the threat of which extends into early evening. ![]() Shorter term, the next organized precipitation chance will over the weekend with a couple of weak shortwaves moving through the region. We maintained the projections of near to slightly above average rainfall in August this week with climate models continuing their position of slightly wetter than average throughout different parts of the month, but not abundantly so. There will be more evenly distributed opportunities for rain across our region for the remainder of the month of July, but these are mostly tied to the passages of cold fronts and showers/thunderstorms in a limited capacity with them. At the same time, all areas farther to the north are slightly below to well below average during the same stretch of time. OVERVIEW: Precipitation has been very variable this month across the region, and a case where the southern half of the region nearest the PA/MD border, across northern MD, and Delaware are wetter…in some cases much wetter than average over the past 30 days.
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